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　　A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal

characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact;

and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear

less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing

success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim

Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our

world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal

lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans

until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is

that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be

focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know

and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we

don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate

opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate,

and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can

imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool

ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We

restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while

large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in

this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what

we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing

with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and

universal in its applications "The Black Swan" will change the way

you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with

wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic

command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to

probability theory. "The Black Swan" is a landmark book-itself a

black swan. "From the Hardcover edition."

Prologue

PART ONE:UMBERTO ECO'ANTILIBRARY,OR HOW  WE VALIDATION

PART TOW:WE JUST CAN'T PREDICT

PART THREE:THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

PART FOUR:THE END

POSTSCRIPT ESAY:ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY,DEEPER PHILOSOPHLCAL

AND EMPLRICAL REFLECTILONS

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

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　　A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed

improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking

and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan

events explain almost everything about our world, and yet

we--especially the experts--are blind to them. In this second

edition, Taleb has added a new essay, " On Robustness and

Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan

world.

书籍介绍

A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"